Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x302dcdbe734a7de86f8ecc0624648d85f5fc485a5279180e031785044e80690e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,856 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 4,440$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.84 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 1,892$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.29 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 15c | 667.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 15c | 472.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…ffd5backed Yes | 17c | 363.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 15c | 337.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 15c | 245$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…1327backed Yes | 16c | 129$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 14c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…60c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 15c | 90.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 79.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 15c | 76.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…84bbbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 17c | 59.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-08?No won
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.