Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9619a44633e5a5040aa3ea8b0d797bb87eadbee6f5e81e7b7ea4fba37bd019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,532 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 9c | 8,685$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.65 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 2c | 5,185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 9c | 4,100$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.5 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 6c | 3,393$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.98 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 9c | 2,626$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.34 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 9c | 1,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…4059backed Yes | 8c | 639.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 6c | 630$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f407backed Yes | 9c | 570.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 9c | 545$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 8c | 285.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 9c | 259.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 8c | 244.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 7c | 222.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…75b6backed Yes | 6c | 210.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 9c | 165$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 8c | 149.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…8429backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.