TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,295 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x112c…dbdfbacked No76c19,994$15,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,195.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes25c16,245$4,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,183.9127138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes42c12,418$5,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,151.9775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No19c11,895$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.6519139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked No75c11,594$8,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,695.53452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed No74c10,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4002356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes24c9,375$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,12538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No44c5,974$2,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.7549143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No75c5,736$4,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,301.631,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702b…dedebacked Yes25c5,591$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,190.882142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+68.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes24c5,376$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,084.0869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Yes33c4,299$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,860.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc4…803dbacked Yes26c4,181$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,093.771233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes25c3,147$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.2717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0df…8f41backed No73c2,171$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.966167.2%41 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No75c2,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.996256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes14c1,995$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.19476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xef88…29a3backed No46c1,738$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.453262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No59c1,510$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.2816060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76bc…db0abacked Yes25c1,476$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.16933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed No76c1,316$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.062259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed Yes26c1,192$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+159.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes24c1,183$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.461,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed No75c1,173$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8801650%8 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed No73c1,141$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.912450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes24c1,100$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.6235856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.11136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c35…2965backed Yes27c952$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick34cpaid+210.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No75c902$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.1256951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes26c878.63$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.334544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37628241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No75c694.81$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.9862452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No77c683.69$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.6478248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaed…580bbacked No76c660.08$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.63425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick68cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4e5…f012backed Yes26c576.92$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.92560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+114.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38063645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38049647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed No65c427$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8212832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19ed…d833backed Yes25c406.39$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.892100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+216.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30010942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae5…45b7backed Yes25c378.59$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes44c375.18$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.383,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No39c338$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.628541.2%35 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes24c333$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.085030%15 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes26c330.19$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8419254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked No75c316.47$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.22441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e05…1b97backed No76c301.97$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.530%0 W · 3 L-2.3wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x744e…3224backed No16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+183.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No75c299.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9919446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No75c299.98$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9916045%72 W · 88 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes75c292.59$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No19c269.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.45446.3%25 W · 29 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x363e…ae45backed No29c243.63$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.73128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-89.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No46c240.45$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6322245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes25c233.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed No45c227.05$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10216046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3798…c20ebacked Yes29c217.24$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.24650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Yes20c215.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.235054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No49c201.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5444655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No27c199.42$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2223842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked Yes18c194.44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.44850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8158…4df5backed Yes26c192.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+227.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0439…3f80backed Yes26c190.35$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.86650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes25c180$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13511250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes25c171.1$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.41633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes15c160$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1368932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb381…45d1backed No76c152.65$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes15c150.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.893852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b28…abdebacked No76c141.63$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3995…dd52backed No76c129.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked No49c128.93$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.445644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d9…bdd5backed No76c126.65$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.25366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaa…35b2backed No76c124.49$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes25c113.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5224541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x016d…7f42backed No76c110.31$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed No75c108$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8921051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No75c105.26$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.953250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726443.8%28 W · 36 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b26…15bebacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0bb…60c2backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes25c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.538646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes34c90.89$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.041,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yes25c90$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.514756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Yes29c89.72$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.892842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.294837.5%18 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes25c82.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.11650%8 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+69.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaff2…9070backed No70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf33…ab3ebacked Yes28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.434959.2%29 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f14…c845backed No73c68.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed No75c66.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.931861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0b…4b16backed Yes26c65.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b5c…7f36backed No76c60.61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2550…8813backed Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b7…de43backed Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes26c57.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.693046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes25c56.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.624660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yes18c55.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9528822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.