Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5176fd0848c978c73be3822af7e04497a9d90853dc2c37332dfd6ac01735be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,020 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 683.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 13c | 539.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 454.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 35c | 337.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 311.41$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 38c | 279.81$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 11c | 200.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 10c | 199.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 20c | 175.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 168.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 148.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 143.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 14c | 138.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 132.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 130$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 14c | 124.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 108.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 75c | 106.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 99.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 99.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 30c | 97.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 78c | 94.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 90.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 89.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 34c | 86.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 75c | 84.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 84.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 82.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 82.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 72.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 24c | 58.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 58.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…c872backed Yes | 27c | 56.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 29c | 56.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 55.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 38c | 53.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 64c | 51.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 49.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 40.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 26c | 40.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 40.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 76c | 38.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 37c | 31.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 59c | 30.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 80c | 29.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 48c | 27.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6883…4406backed No | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 68c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 80c | 23.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 69c | 22.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…ce9abacked No | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 18.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 78c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…9c2fbacked No | 70c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 79c | 13.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.