TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,516 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd33c…f93fbacked Yes0c59,992$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1502…83ccbacked Yes1c2,999$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.73550%0 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes34c1,790$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.071,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed Yes12c964.49$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1611652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c716.72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.252,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No73c417.47$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4591967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No66c385.06$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3421641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2aa…586fbacked No63c354.5$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.222425%6 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2b…6eaabacked Yes17c347.1$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.751729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes8c343.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6255919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c299.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.991,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes5c255.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes13c254.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2338840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c248.72$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.283,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes5c238.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c233.8$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.772,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c223.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.787,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb3…d405backed Yes35c213.93$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3210247.1%48 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes9c192$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8972222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No68c189.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.81,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No67c178.44$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c164$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes13c159.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.83135.5%11 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes31c157.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3112223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes32c150.38$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.68,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x718c…cb66backed No69c138.86$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes31c134.42$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…c872backed Yes23c134.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes13c130$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.181,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes40c128.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.489434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.369520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3612540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3058349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2512…9030backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.97045.7%32 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No68c98.83$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.323,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No64c87.06$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1225341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes14c86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0426253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes35c84.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.511,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a35…6387backed Yes44c82.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.465928.8%17 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No64c73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9310055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc2a…342abacked No73c68.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.15540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes32c67.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5910352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes40c63.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.445042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes22c62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6414617.1%25 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7107…de5bbacked Yes34c58.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes19c56.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.493030%9 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf042…081bbacked Yes36c53.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes31c50.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7813523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c50.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.927,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xda59…51c5backed Yes32c50.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b8…d44cbacked Yes36c50.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1641767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No68c49.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.737576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No80c45.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.251,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No70c44.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.471,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eac…dc78backed Yes33c44.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…85d4backed Yes37c41.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.188256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb68…ac20backed No66c40.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.851963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No71c39.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4731567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No63c39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4332760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No66c38.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0933567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…b4d7backed Yes33c38.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6910360.2%62 W · 41 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No67c37.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.191,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7629558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed No66c35.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcc…5634backed No68c35.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x822e…261dbacked No68c34.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc99f…aeb1backed Yes36c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.983613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9853…2f25backed No66c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.226563.1%41 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.354966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf618…6a90backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.995858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6883…4406backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick77cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7377…462dbacked No70c28.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7919…ca3fbacked No69c27.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.583452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c28…0d2abacked No66c26.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.952334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No69c26.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.096755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0fd…2d64backed No67c24.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81a2…5cdabacked No71c23.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.765872.4%42 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-77.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.613360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea9…2a8fbacked No79c16.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.551553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cde…86c4backed No71c16.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.681735.3%6 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-51%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5bcf…503fbacked No76c15.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.812254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d4…3d72backed No69c14.78$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ac…5b03backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.171330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.