Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x349ba6b19ab2c9513d39badd08123b6cf9de5ac4cca21482f834e50ffd1a474d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66e9…b1a8backed Yes | 26c | 4,160$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,092.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +289.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 1c | 2,763$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…b510backed No | 1c | 2,522$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 1c | 1,949$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…559abacked No | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…cc39backed No | 74c | 1,390$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…ff75backed No | 75c | 1,370$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 831.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 7c | 415.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 3c | 363.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 5c | 281.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 267.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.04 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 57c | 233.84$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 67c | 230.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 22c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…b22dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 194.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 13c | 192.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.07 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 167.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 50c | 165.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…1503backed Yes | 75c | 162$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 16c | 158.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 17c | 148.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.32 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 130$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 29c | 128.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 45c | 115.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 39c | 105.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 89.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 34c | 86.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed Yes | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 41c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 60.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 59.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 19c | 56.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 18c | 55.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 53.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 77c | 51.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 22c | 48.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…c872backed Yes | 50c | 47.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 23c | 46.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 72c | 44.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 75c | 42.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 45c | 38.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 57c | 34.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 31c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 30.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…851dbacked Yes | 62c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 58c | 25.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 25.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 47c | 22.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 20.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…e20dbacked No | 80c | 19.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 79c | 16.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 77c | 15.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 73c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.