Mls · resolved market
Will Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa24bdc5d8761beca0ad3ce2c24bc3e9dc92d3e01336fbc43dd23675ae6393f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,104 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 75c | 5,791$4,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,343.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 4,055$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.62 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 3,549$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,647.32 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 74c | 3,200$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,366.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,448$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.98 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 63c | 1,373$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.06 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 1,291$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.49 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 65c | 1,233$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.97 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 8c | 1,220$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 69c | 1,160$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.1 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed No | 72c | 1,082$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 1,060$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 27c | 607$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.82 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…c1a5backed Yes | 78c | 490.09$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 32c | 464.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 26c | 398.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.85 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed No | 8c | 335.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 6c | 332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed No | 75c | 298.33$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e36…6ce1backed No | 75c | 296$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…1eabbacked Yes | 64c | 279.43$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 27c | 250$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…570cbacked No | 75c | 238.36$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 26c | 215.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.07 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…e58fbacked No | 72c | 207.46$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 26c | 199.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.98 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 69c | 189$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 27c | 165$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.79 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 26c | 143.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 139$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 75c | 133.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 74c | 125.73$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed No | 72c | 90.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 90.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 75c | 90.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…9d33backed No | 57c | 82.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 30c | 81.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 55c | 70.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Yes | 27c | 68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 26c | 63.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 61.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 58c | 53.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 25c | 49.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 43.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 29c | 43.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 41.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 30c | 35.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 41c | 33.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 38c | 33.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7949…f209backed No | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-07?No won
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.