Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb7be96c6ca16b4737b589b15604b48be0f0846c6d15fe0ec94b6c2d5505aeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 78c | 19,664$15,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,414.31 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed No | 77c | 9,302$7,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.55 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 5,280$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.04 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…e461backed Yes | 23c | 5,186$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 23c | 3,995$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.69 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 3,589$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.04 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 2,050$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.5 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.57 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 1,701$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.77 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 26c | 1,318$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.17 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,312$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.13 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 1,296$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.52 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Yes | 18c | 1,278$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 1,013$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.87 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 23c | 982.95$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.67 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 23c | 840$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 752.64$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.07 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 23c | 559$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 486$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 26c | 462.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 23c | 436.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 23c | 399.76$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 22c | 363.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 18c | 337$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 293.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 23c | 222.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Yes | 23c | 145.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 77c | 136$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 13c | 128.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 14c | 117.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Yes | 22c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 22c | 114.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 78c | 111.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 23c | 108.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 23c | 90.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 77c | 79.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 23c | 69.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 23c | 66.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed No | 78c | 64.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked No | 78c | 64.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Yes | 25c | 61.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 61.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 24c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 60.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 23c | 59.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Yes | 25c | 43.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 77c | 40.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…0cd0backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…bd7fbacked No | 78c | 35.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed No | 78c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed No | 78c | 25.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked No | 78c | 24.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…cf8abacked No | 78c | 23.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed No | 78c | 16.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-03-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.