Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c01911eda5c75a8a420ca1710b27854be71506945ffc8986ffd4c7f6aa98e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,212 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 499.26$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.73 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 12c | 335.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.43 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 299.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 40c | 242.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 53c | 222.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 6c | 216.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 215$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 204.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 172.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 33c | 166.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.9 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 38c | 163$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 27c | 160.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 146.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 29c | 146.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 143$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 131.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 125.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…a9c2backed Yes | 54c | 119.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 25c | 118.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 71c | 116.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 9c | 115.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 89.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 88.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 84.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 80c | 82.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 79.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 64.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 25c | 61.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 55c | 58.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 34c | 57.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 68c | 55.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 51c | 54.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 50.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 44c | 50.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 50.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 41.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…6188backed Yes | 72c | 40.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…c774backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 49c | 36.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 42c | 36.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 35.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 33.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 60c | 29.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 46c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 47c | 22.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 54c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…e0d8backed Yes | 69c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 16.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 14.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 78c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.