Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29c1918eaa1391042c4e0199c228148b0740dc8840b525021d96a0b0787cac7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,746 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa511…010bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,398$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…9039backed Yes | 70c | 1,560$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 1c | 1,080$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 341.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 48c | 289.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 24c | 172.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…bca4backed Yes | 44c | 165.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 17c | 151.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 143$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 33c | 134$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 18c | 133.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 52c | 131.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 122.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 11c | 120.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 26c | 114.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 109$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 52c | 101.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 43c | 99.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 12c | 89.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 70c | 83.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 82.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 22c | 81.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 17c | 79.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 16c | 79.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 77.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…a9c2backed Yes | 44c | 72.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked Yes | 15c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 44c | 68.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…d843backed Yes | 31c | 65.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 19c | 60.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 22c | 59.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 27c | 55.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 43c | 51.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 51.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked Yes | 40c | 50.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…a554backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc2…5dbbbacked Yes | 28c | 37.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…d15cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 65c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 55c | 27.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 80c | 26.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Yes | 49c | 20.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…f309backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 59c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 72c | 17.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 63c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.