Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f61153ab9bb2cb9da9c1a9ff1c4d8d395bae9c9ec1d02cf1897bc4a3ee4dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,258 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,446$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 8c | 847.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 294.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 51c | 256.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 214.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 35c | 202.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 39c | 201.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 201.04$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…530abacked Yes | 32c | 199.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 36c | 172.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 166.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 39c | 157$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 155.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 154.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 35c | 150.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 64c | 149.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed Yes | 40c | 143.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 135.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 131.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 27c | 121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 42c | 120.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 37c | 119.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 115.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 99.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 86.46$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 36c | 81.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 80.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 45c | 75.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 69c | 74.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 63c | 73.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 38c | 73.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…2ee7backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked No | 68c | 72.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 53c | 68.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 66.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 65.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…918fbacked Yes | 39c | 65.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 51c | 63.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 62.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 43c | 57.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 56.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 43c | 48.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 46.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 31c | 45.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 42c | 43.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked No | 75c | 34.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…cc4cbacked Yes | 38c | 33.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 45c | 30.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 37c | 29.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 26.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…6188backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…9e52backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 60c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 65c | 15.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.