Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d03e84e4a423092b648ad9e3335a1ab810ab1d638e7005069ff52e3e05064d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,668 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2c8…56f1backed Yes | 27c | 3,985$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…d312backed No | 73c | 1,359$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb62…875cbacked No | 73c | 1,326$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…237dbacked No | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 20c | 818.88$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 637.27$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 635.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 79c | 597.83$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.83 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 567.25$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 72c | 554.28$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.28 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 31c | 440.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 36c | 405.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.89 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 404.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 348.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 337.67$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.13 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 39c | 241.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 227.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 182.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 57c | 177.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 175.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6e…e4bcbacked Yes | 24c | 174.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 54c | 171.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 78c | 170.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 168.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 21c | 159.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.27 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 157$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.34 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 29c | 156.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 146.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 146.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 56c | 143.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 70c | 142.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 35c | 142.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 31c | 140.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 73c | 137.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 80c | 133.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 72c | 129.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.04 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 124.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 66c | 120.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 72c | 114.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 19c | 113$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 69c | 110.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 25c | 105.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 27c | 105.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 80c | 103.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 99.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 25c | 99.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 21c | 98.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 95.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 16c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 91.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 89.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 87.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 26c | 85.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 78c | 82.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…d9dbbacked Yes | 35c | 65.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 69c | 65.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 61.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 28c | 59.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 59.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 79c | 58.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 25c | 57.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…cc4cbacked Yes | 24c | 53.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…b70cbacked Yes | 38c | 52.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 71c | 52.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 63c | 50.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 70c | 50.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 29c | 48.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 46.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed Yes | 29c | 42.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 65c | 41.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 29c | 38.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 37.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…2a8fbacked No | 78c | 37.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…8740backed Yes | 28c | 37.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 76c | 35.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 53c | 32.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 32.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…2ad5backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 79c | 31.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 31.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.