Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0ab30740709ec16b5a900e6c89c8cfc3202bf90ac9336508567341f72f59d2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,061 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 22c | 508.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 479.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 5c | 381.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 352.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 24c | 209.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…530abacked Yes | 22c | 199.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 194.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 187.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 15c | 173.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 17c | 157$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 153.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 27c | 152.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 11c | 150.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 121.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 23c | 109.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…2ad5backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 99.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 99.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 15c | 87.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 86.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 80.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 77.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…f6b1backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382d…f412backed Yes | 20c | 54.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 19c | 53.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 78c | 38.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 32.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 79c | 31.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 31.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0963…dec9backed No | 76c | 29.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 80c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…94eebacked No | 78c | 22.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…f552backed No | 74c | 17.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 73c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.