Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x351eae8b1121a3873692f71244d7c22a983601efa81d5c8ef42c8ee214c762f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,086 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x115b…42a8backed Yes | 20c | 3,977$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 2,349$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.59 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…4a05backed No | 80c | 1,350$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…08cbbacked No | 80c | 1,325$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…fefabacked No | 80c | 1,302$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 734.24$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 10c | 421.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 343$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 27c | 195.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 21c | 189.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 155.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 149.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 80c | 133.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 133.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 127.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…d302backed Yes | 20c | 126$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 125$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 18c | 121$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 112.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 14c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…fbafbacked Yes | 13c | 98.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 12c | 95.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 78c | 91.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 90.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 87.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 14c | 84.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…1fb3backed Yes | 18c | 82.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 76c | 75.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 30c | 74.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 76c | 72.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 26c | 68.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…2831backed Yes | 43c | 62.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 73c | 51.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 78c | 48.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 47.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eac…dc78backed Yes | 23c | 44.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 75c | 41.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 36.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 74c | 35.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…a4b0backed No | 78c | 32.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 26.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…a8b1backed No | 80c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…51e8backed No | 77c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 78c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 75c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…9b6fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.