Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7f563fa78d9253cb06a79fd77bdf442ce134e2c772cabe7fae00c58a85a0e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,947 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7108…b510backed No | 2c | 2,360$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 1c | 1,399$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed No | 2c | 1,022$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 17c | 837.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.94 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 67c | 476.5$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 34c | 475.45$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 39c | 447.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 17c | 346.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 343$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.2 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 38c | 321.84$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.15 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 319.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 308.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 8c | 305.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 39c | 302.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.31 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 58c | 296.02$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 290.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 77c | 279.09$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 4c | 277.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 53c | 265.88$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 10c | 264.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 59c | 224.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 217.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 46c | 216.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 78c | 198.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 74c | 186.59$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 57c | 167.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 51c | 166.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 162.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 45c | 153.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f206backed No | 55c | 152.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 40c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed Yes | 35c | 135.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 67c | 123.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 112.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 107.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 104.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…6539backed No | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 71c | 92.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked No | 31c | 81.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 81.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 61c | 80.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 63c | 79.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 44c | 74.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 38c | 73.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 41c | 65.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 62.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 43c | 61.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 61.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1251…7fdfbacked Yes | 43c | 56.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 55c | 52.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 40c | 49.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 48.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 46.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…5fcdbacked No | 66c | 42.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 40.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 36c | 40.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 36.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 41c | 36.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 30.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…d96ebacked No | 66c | 29.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 46c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 51c | 25.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…e3d7backed No | 57c | 24.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 45c | 24.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…8b4abacked No | 62c | 24.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…51e8backed No | 60c | 23.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 74c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 59c | 19.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 71c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 67c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.