Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2611cc7512a242707aac4c053755d71846fa4da714c6891cbfee4a52778d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,685 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18fd…8da5backed Yes | 24c | 4,205$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…6529backed Yes | 23c | 4,200$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f1…13e6backed Yes | 25c | 4,190$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…eafcbacked No | 76c | 1,420$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…5524backed No | 76c | 1,415$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bf…9f85backed No | 75c | 1,410$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1251…f1f5backed No | 77c | 1,410$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…b557backed No | 75c | 1,400$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…8c23backed No | 77c | 1,400$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…f32cbacked No | 77c | 1,390$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…4f06backed No | 75c | 1,380$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…83afbacked No | 76c | 1,370$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…6597backed Yes | 1c | 1,035$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 432.59$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 369.08$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 343$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 312.32$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed Yes | 27c | 220.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 22c | 220.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 208.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 20c | 199.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…fb39backed Yes | 32c | 192.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 189.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 17c | 181.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 18c | 166.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 35c | 162.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 26c | 159.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 22c | 152.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 150.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 26c | 150.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 70c | 148.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 30c | 137.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 132.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 77c | 130.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 130.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 27c | 111.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 100.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 17c | 99.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed Yes | 19c | 93.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 93.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 31c | 85.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 84.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 80.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 39c | 76.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 27c | 75.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 16c | 74.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 70.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 28c | 69.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 14c | 69.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 23c | 62.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 19c | 60.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 66c | 50.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 50.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 31c | 47.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 47.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 67c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 38c | 46.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 76c | 44.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 25c | 42.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 42.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 74c | 42.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 32c | 41.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 27c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…27e4backed Yes | 39c | 38.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 29.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 69c | 24.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 74c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…4546backed No | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 74c | 18.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…0ba3backed No | 79c | 16.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 72c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8965…e0cabacked No | 76c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 80c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.