Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28cf22f1e5afc1d2cf31f738f151c2c43ba1e51136707c03e16fb971b80216db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4752…0a6fbacked No | 0c | 6,068$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 9c | 1,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…0a24backed No | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 70c | 521.85$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 445.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 49c | 356.04$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 30c | 337.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 301.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835a…530abacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 259.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 25c | 256.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.51 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 249.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.47 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 220.61$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 204.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 52c | 191.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 180.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed Yes | 57c | 171.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 163.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 62c | 159.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 142$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.11 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 127.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 71c | 122.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 110.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed No | 58c | 102.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 60c | 100.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 65c | 96.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 89.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…d302backed Yes | 33c | 83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 34c | 82.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 74.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 47c | 69.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 39c | 64.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 49c | 61.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 34c | 54.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 77c | 52.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 50.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 55c | 49.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 70c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 48.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 46c | 48.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 47.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 72c | 46.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 44.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 42.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 41.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 48c | 37.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 36c | 34.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 44c | 33.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f206backed No | 46c | 30.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 45c | 29.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 28.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 53c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 54c | 28.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 27.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…961cbacked Yes | 56c | 23.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 44c | 23.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 62c | 18.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…64d6backed No | 57c | 18.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 65c | 17.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.