TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,789 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3e5…3b3cbacked Yes26c4,080$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a7b…da68backed Yes22c4,065$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1515…74e1backed No74c1,370$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe936…d6d0backed No74c1,360$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7087…cc2abacked No78c1,358$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ccf…3d7cbacked No78c1,355$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2d…212cbacked No78c1,352$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb86…489fbacked No74c1,350$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes50c1,214$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.5224569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe287…5a0fbacked Yes17c1,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea00…42e8backed Yes30c989.21$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.512020%4 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d8…774cbacked No21c928.23$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+134.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes13c521.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9961659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c462.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes29c457.46$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.552935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes21c430.78$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6235432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No80c425.64$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.612,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes34c357.09$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8845…06bcbacked Yes24c340.12$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.949135.2%32 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes38c267.94$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No78c267.06$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes31c252.74$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.561,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes30c250.5$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3132548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes16c244.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5288628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed No65c237.66$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.584887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No24c211.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3159742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes8c201$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7417338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes25c184.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.883946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes20c184.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.471,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No79c180.01$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.022,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70ab…c998backed No63c152.74$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.956137.7%23 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes22c142$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.691,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes30c137.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1510537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c133.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c128$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.762,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes20c124.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9929642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c122.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1b…546cbacked Yes50c121.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.45580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba9e…58debacked Yes21c117.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes10c107$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1963757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c105.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.062,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.886,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe683…5578backed No67c99.99$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No77c98.91$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.847576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No74c98.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7941070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes23c92.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No55c88.8$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8557545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes24c85.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.351,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c83.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes26c78.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes70c76.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2122236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes70c76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.215759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c70.67$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.263,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes51c66.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7529137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes49c60.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f6…ff13backed Yes20c60.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.241010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.071,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes20c59.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.266735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes37c54.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbac…435fbacked Yes29c52.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158153.1%43 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes22c52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.629434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c41.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.661,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf1b…e88cbacked Yes26c41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No79c40.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3848672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9315…42a2backed Yes50c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes70c37.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.434148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No80c34.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8621676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No78c32.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2211872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes34c31.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes70c30.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.288835.2%31 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb287…961cbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes37c29.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No78c26.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0340777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes54c26.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.127,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No78c25.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.481,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No71c22.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4866543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbac8…0837backed No80c21.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.472975.9%22 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfae…b5ccbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.14100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfab…7ae1backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.64100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd93…0051backed No76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742458.3%14 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick70cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2e5…f172backed No75c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-47.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7817355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No74c16.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4757232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.210371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.