Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79bb561fd7898f4e34e8628ef0251ab9c17fe958444f5a944507b4a8a6ef947c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 1c | 1,666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 2c | 532.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 441.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 375.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 357.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 3c | 353.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 4c | 302.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 4c | 264.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 8c | 239.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 6c | 222.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…d843backed Yes | 14c | 220.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 205.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 10c | 201.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 10c | 132.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…c3a6backed Yes | 9c | 121.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…3df4backed Yes | 20c | 54.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3490…2d37backed Yes | 20c | 53.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…a00ebacked Yes | 24c | 49.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…5e8cbacked Yes | 26c | 45.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…4148backed Yes | 24c | 44.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…318fbacked Yes | 25c | 43.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…626dbacked Yes | 25c | 43.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…fde2backed Yes | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4057…a2ddbacked Yes | 40c | 26.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed28…030fbacked Yes | 40c | 26.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or higher on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.