Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6616cff85c8de739a8b96dad649f8a45e5bef35fcd2248d92a97e81e606162d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,967 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 2c | 8,590$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.34 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…86abbacked No | 0c | 4,861$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 2c | 2,973$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 1,087$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.68 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 74c | 1,056$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.19 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 13c | 699.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 2c | 657.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 319.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 277.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 252.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 70c | 230.05$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.67 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 213.09$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.58 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 25c | 212.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 73c | 202.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 23c | 179.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 177.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 44c | 155.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 151$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 140.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 135$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 123.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 33c | 101$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 21c | 100.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 98.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 47c | 95.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 15c | 89.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 28c | 81.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 67.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 62.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 27c | 61.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 56.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 76c | 52.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd463…46aebacked Yes | 25c | 49.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 47.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 27c | 44.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked No | 79c | 40.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 26c | 39.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 34c | 34.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 45c | 33.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 66c | 25.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 65c | 24.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 54c | 23.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 16.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…1c9abacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 69°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.