Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7acead89f7c24ff70b103b8a77be259aea3c6438deea3c56411db338cf1e762d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,048 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 43c | 730.74$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.73 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 467.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 14c | 339.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 15c | 334.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 289.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 283.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 257.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 27c | 213.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 13c | 184.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 21c | 182.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 172.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 9c | 155.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 151$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 11c | 149.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 14c | 146.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 25c | 143.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 142.93$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 24c | 133$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 121.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 80c | 115.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 11c | 109.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 107.95$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 23c | 100.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 12c | 99.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 99.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 73c | 92.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eac…dc78backed Yes | 17c | 91.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 78.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…3d50backed Yes | 17c | 60.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 70c | 56.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 76c | 43.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 80c | 13.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 69°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.