TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,609 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4eb5…84aabacked No43c22,542$9,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,631.31241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe17b…6f98backed No73c17,969$13,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,205.3410150.5%51 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes32c11,027$3,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,495.622,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes46c4,639$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.934,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes47c3,872$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.8243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes53c3,650$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.626,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes9c3,395$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,101.6696313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef4…9729backed Yes42c3,203$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.041963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+137.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes21c2,425$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.0311227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed No0c2,037$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de5…c157backed No78c1,973$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.063735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcee4…9039backed No58c1,745$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.65825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd576…e634backed No68c1,678$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes25c1,656$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.3831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed Yes74c1,544$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.730664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes17c1,530$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.6457044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes68c1,395$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.4357659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes64c1,364$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.7125742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04db…f0fdbacked No1c1,270$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4390%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes9c1,180$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.511,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes15c847.38$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.8757545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes25c789.1$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.676924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes56c767.12$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.081,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x709a…6170backed Yes65c713.48$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.29540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes5c700$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66537533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No12c692.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes50c623.41$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.921225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4c…631cbacked No58c600$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.641478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick54cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No53c575.85$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.8791967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No39c562.29$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.9558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No21c537.77$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0136819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked Yes76c533.89$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.7226265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes38c526.62$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.2193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No64c499.98$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes22c450.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+350.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes36c386.56$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.912,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc18e…44e3backed No21c377.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.52740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6db…810ebacked Yes54c362.47$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.911040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes61c349.99$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9941845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No60c331.98$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8354143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes49c310.41$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.0345127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes52c301.18$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1817237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2731,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes49c292.27$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No16c288.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.931,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No42c284.58$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.241,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes55c279.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes49c273.48$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.081154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes49c250.69$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.041,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes42c242$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.021225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c241.21$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.821,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…2342backed No57c240.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.363974.4%29 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No34c225.79$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.931,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes38c220.27$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.6422236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes38c198.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4161659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2aa9…a6c9backed No69c190$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.574362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e36…70e3backed No16c188.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.341926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c7…e5dbbacked No50c188$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c187.87$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xee25…5abdbacked Yes37c185.14$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.081384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick59cpaid+99.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes65c184.43$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1925362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3744…5b16backed No45c183.1$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.773713.5%5 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes13c181$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1939810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed No8c177.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154520%9 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes44c170.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.6856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe828…c425backed No46c170$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5327…86cbbacked Yes70c167.51$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.022673.1%19 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed Yes34c162.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3712564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c162.24$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.9217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes43c158.75$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9152935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes67c152.93$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No48c151.11$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.023,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked No68c150.03$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.996939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2588…48babacked Yes50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No47c142.18$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.321,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes57c141.75$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.642,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes51c141.67$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7329459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce2…a155backed No47c137$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes64c133.72$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.626033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No42c131.64$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8716968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes50c130$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf04e…98f8backed No49c128.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.63450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e1b…546cbacked Yes50c128.73$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.88580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No41c128.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.057,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa251…4774backed Yes74c125.63$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.951346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked No60c125.49$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.669434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes26c123.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2287…139ebacked Yes66c121.97$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.973250%16 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes49c119.25$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0926827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes46c119$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9235843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes58c115.47$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.524066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c114.49$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.178,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No49c110$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.556265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes57c104.9$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.081315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x723a…c574backed Yes39c100.36$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.23825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes52c100.21$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1732444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ced…e412backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6b…607dbacked No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6417338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.