Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4982f79b920be0eea8a47976e14e922ddf44c722024dea8279f61a595fb1ad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,609 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked No | 43c | 22,542$9,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,631.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 73c | 17,969$13,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,205.34 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 11,027$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,495.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 4,639$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 47c | 3,872$1,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.82 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 3,650$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 3,395$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.66 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…9729backed Yes | 42c | 3,203$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 21c | 2,425$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.03 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 0c | 2,037$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed No | 78c | 1,973$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.06 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…9039backed No | 58c | 1,745$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…e634backed No | 68c | 1,678$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 25c | 1,656$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.38 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 74c | 1,544$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.7 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 17c | 1,530$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.64 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,395$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.43 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,364$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.71 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 1,270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 1,180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.51 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 15c | 847.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.87 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 25c | 789.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.6 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 56c | 767.12$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…6170backed Yes | 65c | 713.48$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 692.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 50c | 623.41$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked No | 58c | 600$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.64 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 53c | 575.85$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.87 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 39c | 562.29$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 21c | 537.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 76c | 533.89$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 526.62$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.21 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 499.98$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed Yes | 22c | 450.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +350.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 386.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.91 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 21c | 377.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…810ebacked Yes | 54c | 362.47$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 61c | 349.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 60c | 331.98$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.83 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 49c | 310.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.03 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 52c | 301.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.18 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 49c | 292.27$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 16c | 288.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 284.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.24 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 55c | 279.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes | 49c | 273.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 49c | 250.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 42c | 242$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 241.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 57c | 240.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.36 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 225.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 38c | 220.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 38c | 198.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 69c | 190$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed No | 16c | 188.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…e5dbbacked No | 50c | 188$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 187.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…5abdbacked Yes | 37c | 185.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 65c | 184.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 45c | 183.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 181$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed No | 8c | 177.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 44c | 170.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…c425backed No | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 70c | 167.51$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 34c | 162.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 162.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 43c | 158.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 67c | 152.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 151.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 68c | 150.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 47c | 142.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 141.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 51c | 141.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…a155backed No | 47c | 137$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 64c | 133.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 42c | 131.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…98f8backed No | 49c | 128.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1b…546cbacked Yes | 50c | 128.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 128.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…4774backed Yes | 74c | 125.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 60c | 125.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.66 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 123.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 66c | 121.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 49c | 119.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 46c | 119$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 58c | 115.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 114.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 49c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 57c | 104.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Yes | 39c | 100.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 52c | 100.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…607dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.