Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda3c492ddc34a0b1e88d4e1ddba1470eb99d2be5a65f7d85441534ddeb073a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,848 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 2c | 2,699$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 1c | 1,528$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 6c | 364.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 338$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 290.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 31c | 198.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 172.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 75c | 163.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 21c | 138.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 28c | 107.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 12c | 105.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 17c | 101.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 76c | 96.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 31c | 94.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 92.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 89.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 23c | 72.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Yes | 23c | 67.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 29c | 66.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 64.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 53.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…9ec3backed No | 74c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 31c | 34.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 33.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 33c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…77b0backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 22.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 22.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked No | 66c | 15.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.