Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d5bbb8e5feb62fa2a58db1f8e152942031d7b7901847f686960fb0027c702b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked No | 1c | 5,465$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…b78cbacked Yes | 23c | 4,050$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…35d9backed Yes | 25c | 3,946$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,959.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…90d6backed No | 77c | 1,380$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…9f43backed No | 77c | 1,360$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e27…0c7fbacked No | 77c | 1,350$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…2032backed No | 75c | 1,323$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09b…03febacked No | 75c | 1,315$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba80…1e9dbacked No | 75c | 1,308$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 76c | 445.08$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 18c | 338.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 299.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 30c | 249.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 12c | 238.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.46 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 20c | 228.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.47 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 71c | 208.91$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.08 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 5c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 52c | 188.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 57c | 187.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 187.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 183.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 7c | 156.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 124.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 68c | 117.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 108$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 70c | 107.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 14c | 105.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 41c | 102.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 24c | 91.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 56c | 90.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 90.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 28c | 84.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 55c | 82.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 78.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 17c | 74.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 57c | 70.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 66.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 18c | 65.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 79c | 60.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 52.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 21c | 51.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 50.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 73c | 49.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 64c | 49.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 61c | 49.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 22c | 49.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 48.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 25c | 43.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 28c | 36.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 38c | 32.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 47c | 32.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 49c | 28.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…77d7backed Yes | 55c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…c856backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…364bbacked Yes | 57c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 76c | 19.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…088fbacked Yes | 71c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…2ae1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.