Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2f08c585769bb75983e3f8a598c0647e824b275b2f60d9e1c79753b2ea5047f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,372 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 1c | 3,960$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd9…c2e2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…f7c2backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…191ebacked No | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 72c | 577.21$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 26c | 464.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 374.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…4a95backed Yes | 5c | 326.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 283.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 20c | 272.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 16c | 269.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 77c | 260.3$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 9c | 255.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 250.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 233.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 45c | 219.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 56c | 215.11$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 68c | 206.69$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 28c | 200.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 44c | 198.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 196.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 185.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 56c | 178.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 68c | 169.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 67c | 148.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 13c | 146.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 30c | 128.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 111.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 108$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 30c | 101.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 41c | 97.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 14c | 92.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 43c | 90.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 34c | 87.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 16c | 86.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 62c | 84.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 59c | 80.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 65c | 71.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 70.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 29c | 68.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 72c | 67.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 21c | 65.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 51c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 38c | 63.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 56.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 54c | 55.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 55.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 19c | 53.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…77d7backed Yes | 30c | 53.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 50.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 48.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…a15ebacked No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 46.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 55c | 45.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 77c | 45.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 40.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 57c | 39.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 38.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 27c | 37.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 64c | 37.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 32c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 54c | 33.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 52c | 28.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 26.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 51c | 25.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 47c | 25.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4514…48fdbacked No | 63c | 22.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 53c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ce95backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 56c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 65c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 80c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.