Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf92cb2c5a571d65f57beca481c9561f5407a7876952e88b46eba4d92793fc301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,839$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 1c | 5,074$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 8c | 3,444$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.79 | 88 | 12.5%11 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…4132backed Yes | 8c | 2,778$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 2,071$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,777$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 8c | 1,406$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 1,351$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 6c | 1,339$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 9c | 1,169$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…a6a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,040$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 3c | 1,018$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes | 9c | 992.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked Yes | 3c | 970.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 950.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 4c | 922.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 801.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 773.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 2c | 759.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 751.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 4c | 742.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 7c | 705.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 693.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 599.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 575$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 7c | 515.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 9c | 512.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 8c | 501.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 7c | 482.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 4c | 396.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes | 8c | 394.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…5ffbbacked Yes | 7c | 371.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec07…ca80backed Yes | 9c | 368.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 351.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 324$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…3338backed Yes | 7c | 267.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 7c | 262.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…b624backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…ddc6backed Yes | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 8c | 154.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 10c | 113.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…79d8backed Yes | 9c | 109.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes | 9c | 108.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.