Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ec66295c58428c851f88a48adedf14edfd93b74b7d79792c2cddf519df73bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 13,564$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…645cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,219$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 9,642$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,501$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,186$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 5c | 5,018$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.81 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,704$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,969$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,727$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 2c | 2,618$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,613$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,370$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8554…c2bbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,173$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,060$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,945$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 2c | 1,481$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 4c | 1,154$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 1c | 1,118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,039$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…00ecbacked Yes | 5c | 995.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 4c | 879.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 3c | 776.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 5c | 770.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 738.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 689.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5590…13fbbacked Yes | 2c | 667.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 2c | 599.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 545.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 542.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 510$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 476.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 3c | 427.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…9dd3backed Yes | 3c | 410.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 351.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 182 | 4.4%8 W · 174 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 3c | 297.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.