TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1192…634cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeefc…75c6backed Yes26c2,618$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc199…13e1backed Yes26c2,615$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee65…fd9cbacked No74c1,326$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd8…6fe0backed No74c1,322$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f71…8344backed No74c1,296$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ec…2fdcbacked No74c1,289$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…aff3backed Yes76c631.85$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.13826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No16c535.17$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.7259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf84d…5e65backed Yes72c439.43$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3169256.5%52 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes71c438.48$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6110154.5%55 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c299.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf393…d509backed No33c280.45$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5522100%22 W · 0 L+9.2wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+94.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No76c272.14$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c231.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.487,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c218.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes44c206.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.898036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.0186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed Yes23c199.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9932652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b2…4951backed No75c198.4$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes24c186$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.791,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c182.15$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.092,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed No78c181.59$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.655257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes25c179.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.611025.5%28 W · 82 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No79c179.01$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No59c169$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5354143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No19c166.02$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8334219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c162.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.143,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes76c151.36$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8725839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes48c150.85$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2760851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c150$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.28438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8845…06bcbacked Yes19c149.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289135.2%32 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes18c137.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes13c134.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.444311.6%5 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0335…6ecabacked No65c125$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.45492.6%50 W · 4 L+17.4wins+0.32per pick60cpaid+56.1%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No73c121.51$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.257545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes27c115$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.94,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes22c112.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.031,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c109.18$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes42c105$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1435843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes11c99.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes15c99.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9935432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes23c96.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5311044.5%49 W · 61 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No17c91.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.122,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44d7…cf20backed Yes15c90$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5130%0 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76ae…99f1backed Yes53c87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.051625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes26c83.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8433726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c79.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No76c78.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.856674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes26c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x808a…1ae3backed Yes20c73.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes22c68.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0566735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2517…87d9backed Yes18c65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.437540%30 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No66c64.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.961,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes24c62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8814617.1%25 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No40c61.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1859923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0426253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked No19c56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.419461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe01b…a447backed No79c50.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes21c50.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3468521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe256…1dd8backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes35c48.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8833620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c48.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes54c46.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.15862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x809c…4861backed No79c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.253342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf618…6a90backed No79c44.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.175858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes39c43.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7830333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cef…959ebacked Yes24c42.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212015%3 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c40.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcd9f…f62fbacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2b…815abacked No76c39.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3610264.7%66 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No76c37.24$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.834080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No74c33.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9517364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0d…4ed5backed No76c31.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42951.7%15 W · 14 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-31.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No80c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9227376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137f…1edebacked No77c22.6$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No76c22.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.331,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849d…29ecbacked No54c22.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.295100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+128.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.934,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac8…0837backed No78c20.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.352975.9%22 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5548672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc744…955cbacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes75c18.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No78c16.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6821676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7468…27d1backed No73c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.