Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d756b388bdfc45273ab85ae5b907b339e36ee2db0883acc0833892fe5de2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefc…75c6backed Yes | 26c | 2,618$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc199…13e1backed Yes | 26c | 2,615$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…fd9cbacked No | 74c | 1,326$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd8…6fe0backed No | 74c | 1,322$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f71…8344backed No | 74c | 1,296$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ec…2fdcbacked No | 74c | 1,289$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed Yes | 76c | 631.85$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.1 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 535.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.72 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 72c | 439.43$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 71c | 438.48$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.61 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 33c | 280.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.55 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 272.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 231.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 218.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 44c | 206.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 23c | 199.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed No | 75c | 198.4$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 186$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 182.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 78c | 181.59$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 25c | 179.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 179.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 169$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 19c | 166.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 162.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 76c | 151.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 48c | 150.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.27 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 137.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 13c | 134.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 65c | 125$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 73c | 121.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 115$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 112.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 109.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 99.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 15c | 99.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 23c | 96.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 17c | 91.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d7…cf20backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 53c | 87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 26c | 83.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 76c | 78.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…1ae3backed Yes | 20c | 73.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 22c | 68.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 18c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 64.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 40c | 61.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 19c | 56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…a447backed No | 79c | 50.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 21c | 50.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1dd8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 48.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 54c | 46.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 79c | 44.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 39c | 43.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…959ebacked Yes | 24c | 42.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 40.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…f62fbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 76c | 39.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 76c | 37.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 74c | 33.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 76c | 31.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 77c | 22.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 22.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849d…29ecbacked No | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 78c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 75c | 18.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 16.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…27d1backed No | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.