Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab4428071e38d0ecfd67b1dd6fdf9edc4ae75b710f6aca0f03d14e8c6b35fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc4…cf5abacked Yes | 33c | 2,998$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35a…7eb0backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531c…7c09backed No | 67c | 1,498$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 670.4$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 618.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 506.75$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.23 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 20c | 316.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.01 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 25c | 261.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.74 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 65c | 240.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 233.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 229.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 226.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 40c | 218.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 52c | 198.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.97 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 193.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 45c | 192$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 178.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 57c | 172$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 44c | 170$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 54c | 145.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 145.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 12c | 140.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 67c | 135.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 122.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 58c | 118.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 80c | 113.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 27c | 103.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 67c | 89.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 46c | 65.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 64.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 40c | 58.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 47c | 57.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 68c | 55.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 49.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 58c | 47.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 58c | 47.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 43c | 46.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 58c | 46.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 42.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 43c | 35.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 62c | 31.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 57c | 30.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 65c | 28.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 46c | 23.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 23.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 73c | 19.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed No | 73c | 17.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.