Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3388bd69378862564f42ee6a4ef5b7e9210410d16ed65cff57c54c306bc18cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,280 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bbb…092ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 353.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 9c | 186.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 142.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 39c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 105.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 31c | 105.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 28c | 93.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 77.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 25c | 72.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 45c | 70.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 76c | 61.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 54.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 22c | 53.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 50c | 52.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…4e39backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 33c | 50.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 41c | 47.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 64c | 38.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 38c | 36.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…db64backed Yes | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 34.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 27.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…571dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 24.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…fe65backed Yes | 55c | 20.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a7…8400backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…a6b5backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…2cf5backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 18.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.