TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,148 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b05…8983backed Yes1c4,050$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6812421.8%27 W · 97 L+11.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+49.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No66c4,029$2,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.1568615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…b4e2backed No30c4,026$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,810.323411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No39c3,512$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.9856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes2c2,770$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1927417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes47c2,722$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.718324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…a0d9backed Yes25c2,436$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.341060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes48c2,134$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.374226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+91.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c2,067$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes20c2,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41028016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes8c1,800$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14151410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes23c1,758$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.391,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes60c1,648$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.8970616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes28c1,638$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.338848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes1c1,600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.315929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked No80c1,600$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3209348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35dd…75f3backed Yes61c1,476$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.371241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c79…50c4backed Yes18c1,456$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2552634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked No70c1,261$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.177133.8%24 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes35c1,037$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9650828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No41c964.61$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.5614751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes39c837.49$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6640719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes13c805.17$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2921222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes14c791.77$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11419229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes23c773.95$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0543719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No69c770.06$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.427042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes13c679.93$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes41c670.65$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.3915136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes50c649.68$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.966421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No43c646.82$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.4737830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes22c604.56$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.431,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No56c600.06$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.039057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes30c600$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18129227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c561.13$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.721732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes60c526.92$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.442,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No42c501.64$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.996097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed No43c500.12$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.8722610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005437%20 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c17…ab38backed Yes58c467$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.86728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes21c415.76$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7557621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes51c384.44$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.3212543.2%54 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5758…e2d8backed Yes18c333.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.084946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes61c325.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked No66c320.35$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1339723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd936…8318backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907528%21 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes24c296.35$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.123633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes12c292.04$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3624617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No43c278.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.481,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes30c275.53$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3331624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes33c270$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.441,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b0…af3cbacked Yes56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed No74c258.05$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.922142.5%94 W · 127 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No55c239.49$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.8822160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No36c237.65$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5314451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes48c231.73$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1646137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf49f…2661backed Yes7c228.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked No47c210.55$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5417335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes32c201$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes56c200$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11248819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes28c190$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.611224.1%27 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No58c169.93$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.234833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes60c167.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes60c164$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.985827.6%16 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes58c150.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5551845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes58c150$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes60c148$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.77458.1%43 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…a865backed Yes58c133.9$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8911625.9%30 W · 86 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4cb…0e7ebacked No36c130$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.62737%10 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes66c111.07$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3121034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes63c109.02$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3453522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c105$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.219053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5879811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606527.7%18 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.521429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4381…6bd6backed Yes66c99.94$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.139535.8%34 W · 61 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc6…fe98backed No40c92.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.52623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed Yes48c92.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2290%0 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e23…49a5backed Yes52c89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.281637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No31c86.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.625545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x861e…44eabacked Yes73c82.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27316.4%12 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed No42c78.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2611624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes66c74.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.621614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9f…461ebacked No40c72.82$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.519554.7%52 W · 43 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+31%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a2c…b7f7backed Yes65c70$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.42025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…0e52backed Yes70c62.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked Yes62c62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.441435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3949…4c45backed Yes61c61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.367140.8%29 W · 42 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6efa…2947backed Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.85226.9%14 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes56c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.48342.2%35 W · 48 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes63c56.9$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3647032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes55c51.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6421521.9%47 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x857a…bcbbbacked Yes66c51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.663633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No40c51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5110052%52 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…4434backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e97…b933backed Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.