TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$269,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $269,852 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes0c17,515$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.225514.5%8 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+102.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes3c13,464$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.664816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d7…2ffbbacked Yes1c8,546$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.964114.6%6 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-26.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes11c7,256$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.0656429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes20c6,142$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.773411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes22c5,030$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.558321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes1c5,006$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6213430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes5c5,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22536411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes12c4,229$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.5122325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes13c4,121$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.9663821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes19c4,068$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.674017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes11c3,885$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.2821429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes11c3,775$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.421,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c3,748$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.311,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes26c3,666$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.6539723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c3,562$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.6476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked No80c3,400$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6809348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes11c3,208$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.3753817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c3,204$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.414568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes5c3,000$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes16c2,586$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.331,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes4c2,550$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.951410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes16c2,313$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.745715.8%9 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes16c2,240$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.4410629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes4c2,075$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.261,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes23c2,000$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.915024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes5c1,988$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.951,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes11c1,913$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0850828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No79c1,885$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.5321732.3%70 W · 147 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes9c1,686$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2888018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes14c1,636$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes13c1,624$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4319722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes4c1,575$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6438848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes13c1,559$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7216941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes11c1,519$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4962412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc5b…eb72backed Yes25c1,423$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.198633.7%29 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes23c1,370$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.8357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes18c1,214$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.919226.1%24 W · 68 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes15c1,212$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.129035.6%32 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes5c1,204$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3479811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes9c1,191$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2802.5%2 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes20c1,141$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9949919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8965…00b7backed Yes6c1,078$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.051216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-71.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes13c1,071$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4927417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes17c1,054$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1933422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes12c1,002$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.424710.6%5 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+93.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes12c1,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11553522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed Yes17c999.98$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.011118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes19c942.86$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8314751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes17c932.51$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes8c926.44$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.148915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes18c900$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.915929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac43…3a33backed Yes27c835.5$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.696544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…22a4backed Yes12c816.39$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.84129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes12c809.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.925630.4%17 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes32c800$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.810536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes10c750$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7546521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes11c669$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3943719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes36c667.77$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.191216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes24c633.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes15c620.34$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.494526.7%12 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a5…fccdbacked Yes2c607.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23026.7%8 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-44.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes19c597.03$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3724524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes23c576.56$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.113235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes28c561.57$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes20c547.36$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9410143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes12c514.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9820025%50 W · 150 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b4c…22c0backed Yes8c504.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.722948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…8360backed Yes13c500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes11c499.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5584616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes18c498.69$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5648819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x271a…a02cbacked Yes15c497.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0e…5fedbacked Yes15c472.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe178…0c26backed Yes10c449.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.44326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid+21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes24c410.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+97.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked Yes12c408.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.087133.8%24 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35dd…75f3backed Yes15c400$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf67b…ca70backed Yes34c382.38$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ce…645cbacked Yes30c364.58$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.552334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes17c358.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.524431.8%14 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa430…93dbbacked Yes19c333.47$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x213c…ab63backed Yes24c311.39$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.712128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes33c306.07$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5735024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes17c304.55$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7114427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes7c300.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128211%31 W · 251 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.720723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes15c293.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4543126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes13c289.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.364320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x137f…968dbacked Yes18c284.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes18c282.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes10c273$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.216033.3%20 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+74.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes38c261.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf6c…8ce4backed No78c253.8$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x308a…eed3backed Yes5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66630.3%20 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid+62.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes23c237.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5310652.8%56 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes16c231.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.122420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes9c200.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.564226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+91.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes24c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.742719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.113517%23 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4017335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.