Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae8530e5f482b07f43bb832e5905fa65f095a5725dbeffec8cb957d2c259f840
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,091 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 11c | 882.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.95 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 71c | 817.71$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 41c | 697.54$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.3 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 7c | 687.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 21c | 544.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 435$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 407.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.91 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 7c | 405.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.08 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 16c | 391.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.55 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 32c | 390.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.57 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 59c | 386.12$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.31 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 12c | 382.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 28c | 361.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 76c | 338$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.8 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 322.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 41c | 317.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a8…bcf2backed Yes | 79c | 300.58$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 294.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 13c | 265.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…2999backed Yes | 15c | 229.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 22c | 225.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.93 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 12c | 220.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.53 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 199.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 8c | 190.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.29 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 21c | 184.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.57 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 12c | 173.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.88 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 66c | 161.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 156$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 10c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 14c | 137.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.33 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 20c | 132$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 131.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 21c | 131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 48c | 115.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 111.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 11c | 106.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 106.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 36c | 106.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 18c | 102.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…501fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 36c | 99.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 31c | 93.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 55c | 91.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 22c | 85.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 78.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 27c | 77.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 76.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 19c | 72.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 69.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 17c | 58.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 74c | 55.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 36c | 53.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…e3babacked No | 77c | 44.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 40c | 41.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 69c | 39.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 28c | 38.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8203…cab2backed No | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 45c | 27.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…98d8backed Yes | 67c | 24.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.