Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8f884933700da92d029e5893b146e07f338aa7101054519fae96b5869cff14a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,633 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ba5…2999backed Yes | 1c | 8,014$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,414$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 783.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…dc65backed Yes | 2c | 750.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 616.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 55c | 438.09$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.79 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 410$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 20c | 383.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 368.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 52c | 358.42$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.03 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 63c | 341.27$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.71 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 58c | 340.11$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.43 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 296.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 12c | 285.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…ce7bbacked No | 53c | 285.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 261.92$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 11c | 256.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 60c | 253.64$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb879…aa96backed Yes | 21c | 241.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 237.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 232.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 7c | 218.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 42c | 215.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 9c | 211.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 51c | 211.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…e855backed Yes | 49c | 206.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…6435backed Yes | 50c | 202.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 201.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 54c | 185.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 17c | 174.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 61c | 167.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 29c | 166.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 41c | 158.56$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 158.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 153.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 66c | 149.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 9c | 145.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 9c | 134.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 120.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 111.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 107.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…d525backed Yes | 47c | 105.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 78c | 99.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 45c | 99.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 97.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 42c | 94.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 14c | 92.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 91.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 88.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 26c | 76.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 76.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 43c | 73.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 71.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 29c | 69.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 68.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 64.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 52c | 63.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 48c | 62.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 41c | 60.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 59.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 54c | 56.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 25c | 55.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 32c | 52.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 48.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…d9b7backed No | 50c | 47.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed Yes | 42c | 47.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 30c | 43.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 48c | 38.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 64c | 37.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed No | 58c | 37.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…c9bcbacked No | 64c | 37.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4fb0backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…f9a2backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 32.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…2ad6backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 71c | 29.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 47c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…65eabacked Yes | 65c | 27.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 60c | 24.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 59c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.