Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc949eac2de9a933a7ee9836d7f9dd0e4bd20769f15bd3a9ccce5c056e784b6c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,426 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab87…5f77backed Yes | 0c | 37,959$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed Yes | 1c | 2,083$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 57c | 1,888$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.35 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 7c | 1,119$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.77 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 2c | 1,076$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 22c | 1,020$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.32 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 8c | 730.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 3c | 651.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 635.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 75c | 633.45$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 631.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 24c | 517.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 492.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 7c | 448.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 4c | 396.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 41c | 340.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 316.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed Yes | 76c | 312.78$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 32c | 300$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 21c | 274.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…f9a2backed Yes | 5c | 272$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 46c | 265.04$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 263.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…41aebacked Yes | 4c | 261.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 12c | 207.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 68c | 183.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 170.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 68c | 164.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 74c | 152.36$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 22c | 91.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 89.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 41c | 72.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 18c | 71.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 20c | 70.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 43c | 56.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 34c | 56.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 49c | 44.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 34.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…f3debacked Yes | 68c | 34.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 60c | 33.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…c856backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 37c | 29.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…163bbacked Yes | 76c | 22.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.