Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x430d5d782847539f15892a3f37a320ad347ed62d415571245bfc18d27b36a458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,791 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 785.94$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 2c | 640.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 70c | 637.39$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.21 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 9c | 564.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 451.87$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.17 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 46c | 349.35$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 335.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 3c | 321.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 282.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 27c | 238.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.68 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 231.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 12c | 223.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 57c | 217$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 35c | 203.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 58c | 183.19$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 49c | 180.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 179.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 154.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 62c | 142.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 55c | 137.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 40c | 126.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 36c | 121.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 40c | 115.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 115.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 105.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 82.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 34c | 82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 40c | 81.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 79.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 62c | 78.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 47c | 73.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 38c | 73.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 45c | 71.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 45c | 66.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 65.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 48c | 56.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 55.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 27c | 53.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 52.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…6a96backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…bda5backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 46c | 45.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 44c | 43.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 43c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…5bfebacked No | 64c | 42.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…0199backed Yes | 73c | 40.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…c184backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 66c | 39.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…0836backed Yes | 31c | 35.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5421backed Yes | 40c | 34.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 34.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 43c | 32.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 79c | 31.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 29.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bd…6cb1backed No | 65c | 29.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 25.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…64a5backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4c…631cbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 65c | 19.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 71c | 15.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.