Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x997f1d1f6276508275a0b71ad86be52074cd745049b569856425974cf5cd33b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,363 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 716.01$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 620.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 418.51$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 17c | 381.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked Yes | 27c | 376.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 60c | 327.71$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 297.17$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 292.87$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 276.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 262.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 22c | 252.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 24c | 251.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 20c | 250.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 248.98$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 242.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 224.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 214.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 19c | 205.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 193.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 73c | 187.89$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 150.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 9c | 131.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 129.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 25c | 126.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 17c | 120.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…fd1bbacked No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 72c | 118.47$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 114.61$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 9c | 113.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 112.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 22c | 111.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 13c | 105.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 20c | 104$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 25c | 99.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…4f5bbacked Yes | 14c | 94.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 93.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 27c | 92.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 79.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 79c | 71.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 31c | 64.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…3b27backed No | 80c | 62.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 61.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 60.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 20c | 59.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 27c | 51.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…0836backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 71c | 48.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 23c | 44.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 44.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 37c | 40.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b2…2dcabacked No | 74c | 36.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273b…83aabacked Yes | 28c | 36.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 74c | 30.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 26.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…21aabacked No | 74c | 24.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.