Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5609de6a4f407d4e3fb3206c78aab4a3d315db5cb07449c20f98d31f3ff097e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,832 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ec…0fd5backed Yes | 1c | 2,343$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,555$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 992.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 1c | 952.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 841.71$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.77 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 74c | 814.98$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 785.55$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 11c | 603.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…64a5backed Yes | 15c | 452.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 60c | 432.14$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.55 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 15c | 408.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 33c | 357.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 31c | 353.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 45c | 323.48$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 303.12$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed Yes | 49c | 299.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 10c | 297.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 35c | 279.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 36c | 277.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 273.74$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked No | 69c | 273.64$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 64c | 266.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 249.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 36c | 240.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 22c | 239.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 221.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 16c | 218$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…f775backed Yes | 33c | 217.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 11c | 208.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 12c | 193.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…8113backed Yes | 67c | 189$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 188.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 6c | 179.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…792dbacked No | 55c | 155.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 67c | 153.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 153.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 148.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 29c | 139.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…f030backed Yes | 30c | 128.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 127.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 126.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…d57fbacked Yes | 32c | 123.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…bca4backed Yes | 35c | 121.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 44c | 119.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 117.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 21c | 117.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b92…aaa1backed Yes | 34c | 117.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…23abbacked Yes | 24c | 114.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 113.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 100.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…ab49backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4b…ee55backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 38c | 97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…4be5backed Yes | 33c | 96.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 93.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Yes | 42c | 92.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 35c | 91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 28c | 89.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 14c | 86.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 40c | 84.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 24c | 84.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 28c | 77.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 67c | 77.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 62c | 76.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…4992backed No | 37c | 75.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e7…aab7backed Yes | 77c | 75.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…052bbacked Yes | 71c | 74.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked No | 71c | 72.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 70.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 69.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 69.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 74c | 66.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed Yes | 41c | 61.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 60.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked Yes | 53c | 60.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…ec3cbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 61c | 59.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 59.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 57.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 74c | 54.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…c1e7backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 52.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 54c | 52.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 51.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…bda5backed Yes | 55c | 49.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed Yes | 51c | 49.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 47.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…44edbacked Yes | 23c | 47.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 34c | 42.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 32c | 41.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.