AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac7c07e4c992902c796e3c32016969997c5a2a9bbcae407bd361f6ebb53ac7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 26c | 1,461$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.26 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 1,369$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 2c | 1,163$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 73c | 1,091$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.67 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 58c | 1,007$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 8c | 974.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 14c | 856.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 658.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 4c | 590.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…b2d0backed Yes | 76c | 483.39$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 36c | 460.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.37 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 47c | 313.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 29c | 308.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.26 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 28c | 308.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 54c | 294.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 263.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 248.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 70c | 242$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eec…f651backed Yes | 70c | 190$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…ac1cbacked No | 24c | 184.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…a81cbacked No | 64c | 170.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked No | 32c | 154.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…d566backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 40c | 115.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 35c | 105.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…7366backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 94.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…607ebacked Yes | 77c | 88.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…edd5backed No | 29c | 80.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…ced9backed Yes | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 67.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…34e2backed Yes | 76c | 65.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe8…89f8backed No | 73c | 47.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…aa0abacked Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 71c | 42.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb12f…0fb0backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…1197backed Yes | 79c | 38.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…3b3ebacked Yes | 66c | 38.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…c2e4backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 66c | 33.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 71c | 30.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 75c | 29.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed No | 77c | 29.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…e038backed Yes | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…cc8dbacked Yes | 79c | 26.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…8dd0backed Yes | 59c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa670…456cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…40c4backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…3f56backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752d…d335backed Yes | 65c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.