AI · resolved market
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4953d7f5615813d9f38eeea4966187191638d6762e6f173d0c57c4b879f4f4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 37c | 1,042$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.2 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…9f06backed Yes | 42c | 1,037$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 5c | 815.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 8c | 601.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.21 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 66c | 563.08$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.72 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 20c | 554.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…3008backed Yes | 74c | 403.51$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed Yes | 32c | 398.39$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf62…b45abacked Yes | 67c | 366.94$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…bbb6backed No | 33c | 366.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 25c | 348.84$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.13 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 22c | 323.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a44…01a4backed Yes | 61c | 309.47$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f6…0780backed No | 39c | 309.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 80c | 250.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x340a…02a4backed Yes | 45c | 238.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…934abacked No | 55c | 238.78$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…e58abacked No | 55c | 227.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b17…c9b4backed Yes | 45c | 227.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 28c | 180.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 54c | 174.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…5cefbacked Yes | 38c | 159.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Yes | 35c | 159$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 20c | 157.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…2beebacked No | 49c | 156.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 70c | 150.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…350cbacked Yes | 10c | 145.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +941.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…f0ebbacked Yes | 74c | 135.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…7366backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…768dbacked Yes | 71c | 82.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 72.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 62.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed Yes | 34c | 59.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3863…ae6abacked Yes | 36c | 55.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 40c | 40.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…d9dbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 49c | 39.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 61c | 35.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…3f4bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…8e49backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 70c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.