Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e873dc39ac6fc8d16ffa6b2b8c5303a92810bdcf7d2449d10c6e4cef6c54da7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,385 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 79c | 1,420$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.56 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 452$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 290.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.74 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 39c | 286.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 77c | 279.88$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 76c | 197.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 24c | 195.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 54c | 192.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 51c | 189.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 56c | 179.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 42c | 173.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 20c | 158.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 25c | 157.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 46c | 153$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 33c | 152.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 144.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…e356backed No | 21c | 127$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 68c | 119.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 54c | 111.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e36…70e3backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 19c | 98.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 97.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 30c | 93.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 20c | 89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 16c | 86.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 24c | 84.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 84.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 46c | 80.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 46c | 79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes | 64c | 78.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 75.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 70.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 63.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 19c | 62.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 41c | 57.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 54.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 47c | 53.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 50.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 47.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 41c | 45.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…a4cdbacked Yes | 48c | 45.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…db07backed Yes | 51c | 44.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 48c | 43.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…6acebacked Yes | 48c | 41.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 74c | 40.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed Yes | 78c | 38.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7d9abacked Yes | 38c | 37.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 54c | 36.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 57c | 35.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…1cd0backed Yes | 42c | 31.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…c72ebacked No | 35c | 31.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…fe28backed Yes | 54c | 30.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 52c | 30.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…023ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…1a9ebacked Yes | 48c | 29.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…f9a6backed Yes | 50c | 27.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…54f1backed Yes | 57c | 27.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…e3d7backed No | 49c | 24.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a3…ec5dbacked No | 52c | 21.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…ff3bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 17.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.