Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0096c3285936c5f8ac968474b3dc544cec3592ddae412e07c4856065d87453c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,699 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40d2…dc99backed Yes | 26c | 3,937$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed No | 2c | 1,700$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6d…f8c5backed No | 74c | 1,325$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd016…83bfbacked No | 74c | 1,312$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…8fe9backed No | 74c | 1,300$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 71c | 499.98$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 421.69$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.74 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 421.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 406.09$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.42 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 325.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.82 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 232.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 218.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 6c | 208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 76c | 189.58$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 23c | 189.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 62c | 166$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 8c | 163.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 21c | 159.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 158.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 17c | 153.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 141.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 113.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed No | 77c | 113.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 52c | 112.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 97.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 96.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 91.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 43c | 86.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 75.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed No | 80c | 62.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…a4cdbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 148 | 28.4%42 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 55.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 29c | 50.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 28c | 40.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 37.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 36.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 75c | 34.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed No | 76c | 33.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c7…b2e1backed No | 41c | 32.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked No | 79c | 31.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 79c | 27.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 73c | 26.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…b773backed No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 72c | 24.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed No | 77c | 20.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed No | 76c | 18.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 79c | 17.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…506bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7241…92acbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550f…e0debacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.