Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8014fef670f6d073bb71a462f9141838390eee841fb20fefb150e226ccca0077
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a7…4aa3backed No | 1c | 10,424$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…dee4backed Yes | 24c | 3,976$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…7f43backed Yes | 21c | 3,840$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…e481backed Yes | 22c | 3,775$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…1a15backed Yes | 23c | 3,630$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,795.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…743cbacked Yes | 23c | 3,603$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d6…0609backed Yes | 33c | 2,810$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…bb26backed Yes | 33c | 2,712$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 1,498$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…598dbacked No | 67c | 1,424$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…cad7backed No | 67c | 1,386$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff8b…50a3backed No | 67c | 1,382$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…c86fbacked No | 76c | 1,350$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d15cbacked No | 67c | 1,330$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2204…2aa6backed No | 76c | 1,326$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6948…323bbacked No | 79c | 1,300$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfa…e260backed No | 76c | 1,300$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9a24backed No | 79c | 1,290$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…00d1backed No | 78c | 1,280$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…1d30backed No | 78c | 1,250$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…92c6backed No | 79c | 1,250$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…74cfbacked No | 78c | 1,245$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…64e8backed No | 77c | 1,233$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf380…0390backed No | 77c | 1,205$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…287fbacked No | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes | 67c | 1,200$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 33c | 1,200$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…a8a6backed No | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…d768backed No | 77c | 1,198$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…aff1backed No | 77c | 1,197$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 41c | 1,130$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.45 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 35c | 1,022$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.65 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 21c | 892.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 55c | 891.1$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.1 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 10c | 722.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 692.61$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 28c | 550.14$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.11 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 30c | 449.3$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 33c | 444$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 36c | 425.15$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.37 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 423.71$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.54 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 24c | 399.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.98 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 45c | 387.48$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 18c | 363.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…1217backed No | 41c | 360.64$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 79c | 350.31$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed No | 22c | 334.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae5d…05e8backed No | 78c | 301.47$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 62c | 300.21$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 286.27$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 283.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b5…0e7cbacked No | 45c | 275.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 271.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 59c | 265.86$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 56c | 265.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 252.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 60c | 217.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 203.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 50c | 201.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 62c | 201.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 27c | 197.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.66 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 191.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…05a8backed No | 6c | 176.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked Yes | 45c | 175.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 172.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 30c | 165.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 162.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 74c | 159.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 28c | 159.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.53 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 31c | 156.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 27c | 150.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed No | 39c | 148.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 63c | 135.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes | 49c | 134.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…b43dbacked Yes | 30c | 131$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 130.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 117.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb6…04b7backed No | 10c | 117.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…c128backed Yes | 67c | 106.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 51c | 104.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 104.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 29c | 102.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.05 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 27c | 100.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2b…f440backed Yes | 60c | 99.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes | 80c | 96.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 42c | 96.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 94.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…2540backed No | 50c | 89.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.