TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,377
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,798

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,377 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39a7…4aa3backed No1c10,424$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.891735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5493…dee4backed Yes24c3,976$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,021.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…7f43backed Yes21c3,840$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x110f…e481backed Yes22c3,775$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,944.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x807c…1a15backed Yes23c3,630$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,795.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc869…743cbacked Yes23c3,603$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,774.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53d6…0609backed Yes33c2,810$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7217…bb26backed Yes33c2,712$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+202.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes60c1,498$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.466,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc26…598dbacked No67c1,424$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9b…cad7backed No67c1,386$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff8b…50a3backed No67c1,382$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc15a…c86fbacked No76c1,350$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeba…d15cbacked No67c1,330$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2204…2aa6backed No76c1,326$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6948…323bbacked No79c1,300$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dfa…e260backed No76c1,300$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c85…9a24backed No79c1,290$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1892…00d1backed No78c1,280$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb28…1d30backed No78c1,250$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x769b…92c6backed No79c1,250$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4d…74cfbacked No78c1,245$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7716…64e8backed No77c1,233$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf380…0390backed No77c1,205$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b1…287fbacked No77c1,200$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes67c1,200$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961650%8 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7c7…bc56backed No33c1,200$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.27170%0 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa33d…a8a6backed No77c1,200$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d17…d768backed No77c1,198$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb455…aff1backed No77c1,197$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No41c1,130$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.4526339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No35c1,022$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.6557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No21c892.93$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes55c891.1$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No10c722.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2224010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c692.61$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes28c550.14$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.119429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No30c449.3$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No33c444$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.074,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No36c425.15$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes50c423.71$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.5495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes24c399.97$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.987823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No45c387.48$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No18c363.18$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0334618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b9e…1217backed No41c360.64$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.67955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+6.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes79c350.31$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8629922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa6…54a4backed No22c334.35$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.791258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae5d…05e8backed No78c301.47$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.08366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick77cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes62c300.21$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11360851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes26c300$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No74c286.27$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c283.88$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b5…0e7cbacked No45c275.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes25c271.56$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.57,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes59c265.86$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8618727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes56c265.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9227047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes45c252.56$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.561,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes60c217.96$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1823633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No71c203.65$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.353,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes50c201.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4733058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes62c201.24$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.134833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes27c197.74$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.663625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c191.87$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe24d…05a8backed No6c176.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff3…983fbacked Yes45c175.32$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.541850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c172.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes30c165.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.82528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c162.19$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.83,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No74c159.66$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4638840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes28c159.42$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5318041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes31c156.78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4217135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes27c150.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1315133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c149.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.798438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed No39c148.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.187323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes63c135.64$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes49c134.45$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaddc…b43dbacked Yes30c131$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+166.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes20c130.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.213,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c128$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.242,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No51c120$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No21c117.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2459121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb6…04b7backed No10c117.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4130…c128backed Yes67c106.94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No34c105$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.235843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86aa…eb33backed No51c104.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.054551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c104.02$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.661,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes29c102.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.051,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61bb…66f2backed Yes27c100.28$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.454736.2%17 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+88.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb84…4fbcbacked No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6511025.5%28 W · 82 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf516…1ea1backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355135.3%18 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e8…64e4backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303638.9%14 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6529642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x509f…d23abacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2b…f440backed Yes60c99.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.911030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes80c96.91$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes42c96.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No76c94.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9652245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb746…2540backed No50c89.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.