Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb6bd8fd201b5647743d25071e26767c64a404e2c63d5ffd4c9b87068415cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,301$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 841.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 749.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 6c | 706.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 5c | 599.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 12c | 596.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 477.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 5c | 457.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 409.6$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 23c | 399.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 396.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 394.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 360.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cd…182bbacked Yes | 6c | 354.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 347.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 8c | 285.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba12…97f3backed Yes | 11c | 280.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 77c | 258.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 13c | 256.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 245.8$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 8c | 239.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…1ed1backed Yes | 9c | 236.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd070…ab19backed Yes | 5c | 220.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b5…0e7cbacked Yes | 24c | 205.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 22c | 204.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 187.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 16c | 177.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 34c | 160.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 8c | 152.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…e423backed Yes | 14c | 141.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…69b8backed Yes | 14c | 132.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d7…cf20backed Yes | 21c | 122.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…fcb9backed Yes | 20c | 122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…16dfbacked Yes | 13c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 18c | 111.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…3549backed Yes | 9c | 111.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…0eb8backed Yes | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 100.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 74c | 100.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 99.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 24c | 98.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…cd52backed Yes | 13c | 94.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeba8…ba31backed Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…5d70backed Yes | 21c | 81.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes | 31c | 80.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes | 19c | 79.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 71.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 16c | 63.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…d546backed Yes | 23c | 61.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 33c | 60.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 27c | 59.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 27c | 59.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…1d73backed No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 27c | 55.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 80c | 50.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…e1efbacked Yes | 21c | 49.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…ed97backed Yes | 29c | 47.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…186cbacked No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 79c | 35.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 34.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b4…1bbbbacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 45c | 27.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…64c4backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…0452backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 18.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e8…3999backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 79c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 80c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…367dbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…5238backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.