Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2da5fa9bcb2c31a66dc1ea25aef89fd4d947c4d97efe108de71615c3be740a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf677…159dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 9c | 2,628$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.03 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 9c | 1,567$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,397$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,094$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 5c | 885.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 10c | 637.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 581.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 550.3$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.09 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 5c | 542.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 498$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 470.46$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 414.98$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 37c | 400.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 61c | 396.45$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 380.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 376.25$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes | 11c | 370.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 336$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943d…4a7cbacked Yes | 11c | 316.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 304.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 37c | 299.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 55c | 299.3$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 48c | 285.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…0579backed Yes | 18c | 278.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 8c | 270.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 49c | 245.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes | 57c | 226.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 8c | 224.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 215.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 35c | 194.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 188.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 44c | 181.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 7c | 179.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…f431backed Yes | 59c | 170.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 8c | 156$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 66c | 154.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 149.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 52c | 145.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 33c | 145.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 52c | 143.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 130.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes | 42c | 128.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 45c | 122.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 37c | 119.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…b749backed Yes | 43c | 119.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 17c | 118.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 110.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…58bdbacked Yes | 28c | 102.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 100.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 43c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…30d1backed Yes | 59c | 99.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 68c | 94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 93.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 53c | 92.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 33c | 91.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 91.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 91.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…a07bbacked Yes | 56c | 91.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 47c | 90.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 82.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 81.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 62c | 80.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 43c | 79.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 41c | 78.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b5…0e7cbacked Yes | 66c | 75.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 72.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7395…9c80backed No | 57c | 67.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 19c | 62.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 33c | 60.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 46c | 60.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 60.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 39c | 58.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 40c | 57.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…d42ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…0c51backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 60c | 50.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 48c | 50.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 61c | 45.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed No | 45c | 44.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 40.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 62c | 39.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.