TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,797
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,797 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf677…159dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes9c2,628$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0326339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes9c1,567$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.87323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes6c1,397$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes4c1,094$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes5c885.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4128718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes10c637.11$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.349429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes14c581.48$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5259121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No67c550.3$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes5c542.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.021,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes6c498$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.86,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes40c470.46$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5511025.5%28 W · 82 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No65c414.98$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0886050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes37c400.25$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.17823.1%18 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99cb…4bc2backed No61c396.45$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.775257.7%30 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c380.22$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c376.25$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.647,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes11c370.46$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+238.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No60c336$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.872,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x943d…4a7cbacked Yes11c316.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes19c304.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.341,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes37c299.88$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9616036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No55c299.3$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8991967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes48c285.35$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.554,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e4…0579backed Yes18c278.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes8c270.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1527079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes49c245.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6738840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes57c226.84$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1293855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes8c224.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c215.74$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.021,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes39c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.941,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes35c194.25$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.434032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No68c188.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7554143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No44c181.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x0be5…0db3backed Yes7c179.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.942138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…f431backed Yes59c170.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes8c156$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2325742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes66c154.46$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes12c149.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7433620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7961…eaa8backed Yes52c145.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756973.9%51 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03bb…cb41backed Yes33c145.01$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.52030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5504…665dbacked No52c143.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1210055%55 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c130.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.513,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2b0…bae1backed Yes42c128.36$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.793625%9 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No45c122.89$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.891,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes37c119.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3910650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb422…b749backed Yes43c119.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.051838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes17c118.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c110.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.992,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c66…58bdbacked Yes28c102.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No70c100.72$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2232652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-52.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x509f…d23abacked Yes53c99.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes43c99.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4923633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fae…30d1backed Yes59c99.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x089b…c619backed No63c95.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.247576%57 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f6…628cbacked No68c94$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.086755.2%37 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No60c93.93$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes53c92.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.192,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes33c91.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No49c91.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.818,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c91.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.312,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb5…a07bbacked Yes56c91.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No47c90.4$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9151762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2711835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes47c85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2514338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No57c82.12$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.023,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No49c81.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.431,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc627…5d3dbacked No67c81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.732548%12 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick64cpaid-29%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No62c80.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.642,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751d…9f55backed Yes62c80.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes43c79.59$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1318041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc549…97b7backed Yes41c78.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.91952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes52c76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6410542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5b5…0e7cbacked Yes66c75.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes30c72.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.921,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7395…9c80backed No57c67.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.24757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes19c62.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9655919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes33c60.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1333726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…6114backed Yes46c60.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0115133.8%51 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No66c60.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4352245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.264333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes39c58.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2311436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61bb…66f2backed Yes40c57.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234736.2%17 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+88.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4f2a…d42ebacked Yes36c55.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+98.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…0c51backed Yes55c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3889…24a5backed Yes39c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.765425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No60c50.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.46674.2%49 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No48c50.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3763757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe57…4406backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55527.3%15 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2512223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed No35c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.535232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed No61c45.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.729459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x05a1…89f9backed No45c44.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.292334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes42c40.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1314736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf465…8a3bbacked No62c39.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.954080%32 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.