Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf95b40d755fcdc27e2c7f7122d614e74a16eb1c26d0f9a2dc1317fe9f4b3c89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8093…b208backed Yes | 17c | 11,000$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed Yes | 17c | 11,000$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 78c | 4,983$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.32 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,488$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.62 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 33c | 2,296$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.37 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 2c | 1,931$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,498$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 13c | 1,124$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,104$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.11 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa92f…58b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 70c | 986.48$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.64 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a15…32dcbacked Yes | 20c | 941.3$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 18c | 815.26$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 725.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 711.18$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 624.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 550$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed No | 73c | 512.5$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 499.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 451.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 422$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 414.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 27c | 402$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 9c | 400.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 27c | 374.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 373.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 3c | 334.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 19c | 310.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 14c | 304.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 27c | 286$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 14c | 285.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 233.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 35c | 203.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 24c | 189.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 16c | 179.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 16c | 178.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 6c | 174.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 12c | 168.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 28c | 166.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 15c | 161.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…9802backed No | 80c | 154.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeeb…3e17backed Yes | 15c | 139.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 134.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 28c | 123.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 37c | 121.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afe…2efdbacked Yes | 39c | 115.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 78c | 112$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 10c | 109.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 11c | 105.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 22c | 102.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…9992backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 26c | 95.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…844fbacked Yes | 15c | 86.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 62.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 20c | 62.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 60.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 54c | 56.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 26c | 42.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 27c | 41.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed No | 74c | 40.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 50c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 75c | 36.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 68c | 33.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…04fdbacked No | 57c | 27.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 47c | 27.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33f…3f04backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.