TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc549…97b7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst Champions League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$50.39
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.89
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+107.4%+$11.79
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$23.88
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C or higher on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+71.9%+$17.34
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on March 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.87
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+108.7%+$13.56
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C or higher on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+62%+$17.22
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.06
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.9
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+142.9%+$121.92
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$56.84
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.75
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+135.9%+$42.98
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$31.9
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+142.2%+$32.88
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.26
All 19 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Clippers (-8.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Pelicans vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$13.2
Lakers vs. Pacersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$8.4
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Rockets vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
Cavaliers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.68
Warriors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$14.85
76ers vs. Kings: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+49.3%+$30.04
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$57.33
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+150%+$45
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-71.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.38
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+51.5%+$30.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+51.5%+$46.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$13.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+26.6%+$15.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$35.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$133.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.