Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcccc054492702d37d2385c749972985c3783b7b0156730c035c06f7877287691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 519.2$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.16 | 12,587 | 46.8%5,897 W · 6,690 L | -42.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 428.83$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 6,900 | 39.5%2,723 W · 4,177 L | +271.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 47c | 207.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 193.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 50c | 190.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…680bbacked Yes | 62c | 155.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 48c | 151.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 235 | 59.6%140 W · 95 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 70c | 151.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 145.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 743 | 23.3%173 W · 570 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 32c | 140.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 59c | 121.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 120.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 13,028 | 20.7%2,692 W · 10,336 L | -2,701.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 119.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 66c | 118.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 117.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 7,234 | 9.3%675 W · 6,559 L | -1,116.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 53c | 109.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 68c | 106.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 99.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 98.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 28c | 93.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 91.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 3,953 | 23.1%914 W · 3,039 L | +124.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 27c | 91.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 250 | 21.2%53 W · 197 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes | 43c | 90.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 84.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 57c | 81.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 80.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 1,853 | 27.6%512 W · 1,341 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 51c | 77.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 73.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 41c | 72.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 26c | 70.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 55c | 69.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 76c | 64.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 45c | 63.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 26c | 62.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 48c | 60.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 47c | 57.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 40c | 56.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 56c | 55.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 33c | 54.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 1,529 | 15.3%234 W · 1,295 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10,010 | 45.9%4,590 W · 5,420 L | -314.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 53.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 51.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 51c | 50.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,036 | 31.3%951 W · 2,085 L | +40.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 78c | 49.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 376 | 67.3%253 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 41c | 49.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 49.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 4,041 | 35.6%1,438 W · 2,603 L | +41.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 45c | 46.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 45.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 46c | 41.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 45c | 39.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 32c | 38.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 54c | 35.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19fa…e09dbacked Yes | 61c | 35.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 54c | 32.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3e…de43backed No | 53c | 29.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 256 | 39.8%102 W · 154 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 53c | 26.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 40c | 26.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 993 | 51.4%510 W · 483 L | -47.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 49c | 25.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 47c | 24.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 55c | 23.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…b738backed No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 49c | 22.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,699 | 38%646 W · 1,053 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 48c | 22.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 65c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 53c | 21.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b0…58b4backed Yes | 65c | 21.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 58c | 19.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.