Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb299f951d8b8d2462d87c234b0ffc4311f43e4e44cff96b84d24d035bdea3e53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 0c | 9,965$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 2c | 1,147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 492.27$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 53c | 469.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.68 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 21c | 423.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 402.93$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 77c | 383.72$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 355.87$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.28 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 336.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 79c | 322.03$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 75c | 320.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 295.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 277.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 33c | 273.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 266.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 225$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 216.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 78c | 212.6$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 32c | 192.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 29c | 190.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 28c | 173.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 48c | 149.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 60c | 141.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 20c | 132.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 130.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 130.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 32c | 116.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 76c | 113.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 110.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 104.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 97.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 78c | 95.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 24c | 88.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 88.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 26c | 85.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 82.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 17c | 82.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 76c | 79.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 44c | 75.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 43c | 72.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 24c | 65.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 78c | 65.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…6916backed Yes | 73c | 65.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 32c | 61.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 21c | 58.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 55.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…c213backed Yes | 21c | 52.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 51.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 79c | 50.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…7434backed No | 58c | 49.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 56c | 49.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 48.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 45.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 43c | 44.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 42.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 42.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 33c | 38.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 58c | 34.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 40c | 34.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 74c | 31.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 31.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdf…97edbacked No | 74c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 77c | 26.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 26.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 80c | 24.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…4d57backed No | 70c | 24.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 80c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 22.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 69c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…a640backed No | 74c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 65c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 69c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 69c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.