Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f9afdedbda5ed48a9e18077141d064b9248b8634cc9fb754822a46a9ec37c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 4c | 1,446$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 486$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 451.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.36 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 359.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 345.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.72 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…aa01backed Yes | 40c | 324.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.96 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 54c | 251.08$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 39c | 245.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.57 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 59c | 231.24$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 20c | 228.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 217.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 23c | 215.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.29 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 200.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 187.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 181.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 66c | 178.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…0db3backed Yes | 32c | 171.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 7c | 171$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cda…3d8abacked No | 66c | 150.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 144.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 58c | 139.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 137.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 128.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 41c | 120.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 118.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 40c | 117.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 117.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe57…4406backed Yes | 34c | 114.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 67c | 112.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca74…f4efbacked No | 62c | 110.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 59c | 109.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 55c | 108.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 50c | 102.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…9ba7backed Yes | 30c | 100.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 37c | 99.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 56c | 90.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 61c | 88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 67c | 83.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 43c | 81.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 38c | 81.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…5c16backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 42c | 75.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed No | 73c | 74.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 69.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 62.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 61.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…97b7backed Yes | 41c | 56.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked No | 61c | 55.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e7…bda3backed No | 59c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 48.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 35c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 76c | 46.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 27c | 45.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…f872backed No | 56c | 44.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…cb1dbacked Yes | 25c | 41.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 30c | 40.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 34c | 39.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 43c | 39.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 76c | 39.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 39.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 79c | 39.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 52c | 38.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 39c | 35.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 38c | 35.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…9992backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 38c | 33.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…bf35backed Yes | 41c | 31.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 60c | 30.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 69c | 29.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 58c | 29.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…a3d4backed No | 70c | 28.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78eb…5134backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…6966backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fd…f76bbacked No | 64c | 25.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 44c | 25.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…54a4backed No | 62c | 23.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…0f0fbacked No | 76c | 21.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…b0aebacked No | 75c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…6022backed No | 75c | 18.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.